What would you respond to someone who says they don’t want to make Aliyah because their kids will "go off the derech"?

From my experience, whenever the topic of Aliya comes up, almost everyone looks for excuses, whether they are true or not, for any significant move, even for a great mitzvah, takes guts! Cognitive dissonance brings us to logically or even religiously justify that which is convenient and easier, but that doesn't mean it's correct! To the contrary. The classic mussar works (like Mesilat Yesharim, ch. 3) already point out that presenting one's Yetzer Hara (e.g. to stay in Chu"l) as a Yetzer HaTov (e.g. "I want to keep my kids on the derech") is one of the "oldest tricks", for it confuses bad for good and good for bad, and easily soothes our conscience from making any significant necessary change. It's very unfortunate your friend claims to feels that way (perhaps he's influenced by the stereotype which may have been the case 60 years ago when the anti-religious ran the country, or by the secular Israelis who live in America...), for living in Israel is itself a mitzva like Shabbat or laying tefilin, and it's like saying: "Observing Shabbat or tefillin may make you less religious". Chazal teach "one should always live in Eretz Yisrael, even in a city of idolators & not in chutz laAretz- even in a city of Jews, which teaches living in Israel is equated with all of the other mitzvot combined" (Tosefta A.Z 5, 2), which should be enough to neutralize any such excuse. It also enables one to do so many more other mitzvot which don't apply outside, also agricultural, and today, social and national, as well. In fact, every single second you are in the Land if Israel is another mitzva (Sefer HaChareidim, ch. 59). In other words, it's not BECAUSE (!) of the Land of Israel that some people seemingly become less religious, but it's DESPITE (!) the Holy Land. Those same people would by definition immediately be less religious living away from the Shchina and her many more mitzvot. I don't know your friend or his circles, but my personal experience of over 35 years of educating 18 year olds in many various gap-year yeshiva programs in Israel, have clearly shown the exact opposite. Students staying in Israel generally marry more Torah-oriented spouses and build here strong homes of Torah, living in stronger Torah communities, compared with their friends who don't make aliya. Statistics also contradict your friend's feelings or limited circle impressions. In different studies done in America (by PEW and the OU), the outcomes range from 33%-56% of those who are raised orthodox there, don't stay so, while in Israel (done by HLMS), the studies found that less leave (from 21%-43%). The varied numbers are based upon how wide the definition of "orthodox" is and whom they are surveying. The 21% number is among Torani yeshiva high school students, while the 43% number counts all those who were enrolled in public religious high schools (which includes those from non-religious families who may send to just to pacify grandparents; to distance from the more problematic youth in the regular public schools; many traditional families who aren't really orthodox; and tens of thousands of olim from Ethiopia and the former Soviet Union who, in order to convert, their families must send them to religious schooling). Accordingly, if you were to compare truly parallel groups/yeshivas/families, say yeshiva Torani families in Israel and the U.S., or marginally religious families in both places, the "retention" group in Israel is probably much higher. Also, a study on this topic in the States, found that those who leave the Derech while on college campuses etc. generally "evaporate" from vision and simply aren't seen anymore in the community, for they leave home to distant places, don't show up in shul etc. On the other hand, in Israel, thank God, even those who "leave the Derech", "stick around" in their families, homes etc. Israel is a very small country and much more family-oriented than western culture (in addition to the high price of rent which encourages many to continue living at home), so those who don't stay religious are accordingly much more visible here, which surely contributes to your friend's "optical illusion". It's also important to understand the significant difference in the cause of those who leave the Derech. In Israel, the pressure of army life (which is also an important mitzva in unto itself!) makes regular functioning difficult in most other spheres during those three "abnormal" years, and once there is that drop, it may also continue in the future. Nevertheless, it's worth pointing out that over the past 3 years, as a direct result of the war with Hamas, 35% of the young (aged 16-35) in Israel have come closer to Judaism, usually davka in the IDF! In any event, here the solution is obvious, to insure that our boys do their army service in the Hesder or Haredi frameworks, where halachic observance is actually built into the system and there is a positive and supportive peer pressure during that period. On the other hand, in the U.S. peer pressure of being like the non-Jewish and non-religious norm and majority (99.8%!), continues throughout life and follows you wherever you may go. Also, even those who do leave the Derech in Israel will still marry Jews (even the 300,000 non-Jewish olim from the former Soviet Union are only about 3% of the population), still eat kosher, don't work on Shabbat and celebrate the Jewish holidays. Very often, they return even more to tradition when they must decide what education is best for their children. In the context of Israel, "assimilation" is even good, for the Jews from Russia, Ukraine, etc. come from gentile or Christian cultures, and come to the Jewish State and inevitably become more "Jewish". Contrarily, in America, it's logical for those who leave the Derech to marry gentiles (who are 98% of the population there!) where the prospect of their and their children's return are miniscule, not to mention that half of those grandchildren aren't even Jewish. Ba'alei Teshuva are visible but statistically insignificant in America. How much more so when today, the Torah center of the world is in Israel, and young people come from all over the world to study in yeshiva, davka in the Land of Israel, this is the place to raise our children. It's true, religion in Galut is more simplistic, black & white: just "don't mix with the goyim". In Israel Judaism isn't just Shabbat & Kashrut, for we're obligated to love and help our brothers and serve in the army with them, even if they're non-observant. Also, some Israelis may feel they are good Jews by serving in the army and being part of the Jewish people (which is true, although partial), without the difficulties of Shabbat & Kashrut. So would we suggest that our children not give tzedakah because non-religious also do so?! It makes sense to observe ALL of the mitzvot because one is not at the expense of the other, but compliments and completes the package deal of the "Torah Temima", the complete Torah. In a globalized world, there's no insulation, even among Haredim. Hashem has decided that we are ready today for the more beautiful and encompassing complex Torah, and He gives us the tools to meet those challenges. In galut, like in a dark home, the more furniture around, the more we will trip so we just avoid them, but in Israel (likened by Yirmiyahu to a light room), the more furniture adds to the beauty, that's the Living Torah revealing G-dliness in everything, including modernism, secular studies, army, work, politics etc.. Even if one decides to opt to be less open, it's better to live in Givat Shaul and not send your son to the IDF than to live in America (where he's not in the army anyway!) and also misses out every second on all of the mitzvot and spiritual advantages of Eretz Yisrael & Am Yisrael. I will concede that specifically among Anglo olim to whom you refer, the children are often raised in pro-active and "gutsy" homes, precisely that which enabled those parents to "rebel" against the gashmiut and physical pleasures of their own upbringing in America and "make the move". This environment may logically also have a tendency to raise children who also "change course" in the opposite direction! In other words, those who leave are sometimes an expression of their environmental upbringing, and such parents would raise such children wherever they would be. The solution: consider what type of spouse to marry. Ironically, also sometimes Anglo parents are more permissive, and even go out of their way to make a conscious effort to live in Anglo communities in Israel, and keep American language and culture in their homes, often reminiscing or praising American products and culture, despite (!) being in Israel. Also, some Anglo parents here may wrongly justify investing less effort into educating their kids, thinking that here they have less to worry about because the "streets are Jewish". On the other hand in America, parents MUST make a conscious effort to do the opposite, always stress the Jewish environment in the home. In short, America is not the solution but rather the problem, and the answer is to try and keep "America" out of our homes in Israel, as well. One can also build a case for the phenomena that the "post-high school experience" and "rebellion" of one's religious teen coming from America to Israel to learn in yeshiva is the exact opposite of his Israeli teen counterpart. Many Israeli teens want to experience "something else" and "be different than their parents" by traveling abroad outside of Israel after the army. But the alternative, of "playing reverse psychology" by staying in America is not only a dangerous risk (where again, the stakes are much more extreme & higher), but according to that, every generation forever should do a zig-zag and do the opposite of what they know is good for themselves?! This is precisely what Yishayahu told Hizkiah (Brachot 10a), "don't try and figure out the equations of G-d. Do what you are supposed to do, and Hashem will do that which He sees fit". The mitzvot are called "L'tov Lach" (Dvarim 10, 13), for your benefit, and that clearly should be our decision. Even if theoretically (!) your friend were to be correct in saying it is more problematic to raise children in Israel, as above, our sages already taught that it's better to even live in a city of idolaters (!) in the Land of Israel, rather than in a city of religious Jews outside of Israel (Tosefta, ibid; K'tuvot 110b, Shulchan Aruch Ev.H. 75). To understand that surprising statement, see my elaboration at: https://www.yeshiva.co/midrash/10931 . In other words, our sages clearly are already relating to your friend's question (even BEFORE Israel was the world's Torah center)! In short, in today's world, there's no guarantee anywhere regarding your children's future spirituality. Free-will has shifted into a higher gear, but when you make the decision to make Aliya, you are at least ensuring that they and their children will be Jewish, will be living among Am Yisrael, will be around in Y'mot HaMashiach, will be doing that many more mitzvot (by definition of being here) & will be in contact with more idealistic and impressive Torah personalities and the world Torah center. Not to mention that you will be following the guidance of our sages who already answered your friend's question 1,800 years ago, even when the atmosphere in Israel was idolatress! You and your children will also be an active part of the most glorious chapter in Jewish history: the gathering of the exiles and the redemption! BTW, even those adamant to stay in America, the G-d of history is sending them Home anyway, for anti-Semitism there is closing that option. Shlomo Zalman Shragai, was one of the leaders of the religious-Zionist Mizrachi around the time of the founding of the nascent State of Israel, who headed the Aliya department of the Jewish Agency. He saw that at the time, the anti-religious Zionists who ran the country often directed young dati olim from Morrocco to anti-religious kibbutzim. He asked the famed R. Zvi Pesach Frank, rav of Yerushalayim, whether in fact it was proper to bring them on aliya under such circumstances? R. Frank answered: "definitely! You will see that those who stay in chu"l will not only assimilate but will be totally lost to Am Yisrael", and that's precisely what happened. B'Hatzlacha Rabba u'LeHitra'ot BaAretz! Rav Ari Shvat (Chwat)